Sweet merciful Lasseter, a real, actual, no-bones-about it movie to be excited about! A summer movie worth actually leaving the house to see! Are we dreaming? Is it real? Could it be? It is!
"Toy Story 3" hits theaters this weekend, and it is possibly the most-anticipated second sequel to a 15-year-old genre-altering children's film to come out this year. Pixar is on an unparalleled streak right now, churning out critical and commercial hits at every turn. According to the reviews -- 99 percent positive! -- the critical streak ain't ending here, and neither is the commercial one.
So how much is it gonna make? My prediction: $115-120 million. And I very easily see how I could be highballing or lowballing it, but that's where I see it opening.
The rationale: The Pixar movies have opened in the $60-70 million range for six of their last seven features (from "Monsters, Inc." in 2001 to "Up" last summer). That has included a grand total of zero sequels. They've turned movies about senior citizens and mute robots into $63-68 million openers. Their one opening misstep, "Ratatouille," debuted with a relatively pedestrian $47 million -- but because it was so good, after the word-of-mouth kicked in, it had the best opening-to-final ratio of all but one of the other Pixar movies since 2001 (the exception, "Finding Nemo," had absurd legs).
They've done this without a sequel. Their brand name makes their movies de facto sequels, which means the Pixar name helps an audience get over a concept like "Wall-E" -- to a certain extent. The audience still shows up, but it takes more time. This time, they are finally giving Disney the manna they've wanted since the 2000s began. Sequels have the entrenched brand identity that helps franchises like "Batman," "Transformers," "Pirates of the Caribbean," "Shrek" and many others outdo themselves in terms of debuts from film-to-film.
Then you factor in the 3-D ticket prices, which are good to goose prices another hard-to-quantify percentage. And mix all that together and look at the most recent comparison: "Alice in Wonderland."
That film had a known brand, the 3-D prices, star power (in that case, Depp; in this case, Pixar) and was providing something different and unusual to an audience starved for it. That movie opened with $116 million this spring. This one is going to top it. It's also going to usurp that film's throne as the biggest movie of 2010 ($333 million) -- and top "Finding Nemo's" $339 million. Grand predictions, I know, but I stand by it: This will be their first $350 million film, and I bet good money it is their first $400 million film.
All of the factors are lined up for it. The summer movie season has left audiences metaphorically starved for anything good. So you've got an audience with nothing else to see. The brand and film identity are going to give it a huge leg up, with the Pixar/"Toy Story" brand reminding people why they like to go to the movies. The 3-D prices are an obvious financial boost. And the film will appeal to young kids, with families providing repeat business. The reviews are already sterling, as noted above, and word of mouth will be the same.
Oh, and there is another new opener this weekend! "Jonax Hex," which will make like $10 million. Did you know it was coming out this weekend? Me neither.
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